Ceasefire Watch
Monitoring fragile peace agreements and ceasefires that need to hold during the Olympic Truce
Ceasefires Under Pressure
Multiple ceasefires negotiated in 2025 have come under severe strain or collapsed entirely during the Milano-Cortina 2026 Olympic Truce window (January 30 – March 22, 2026). The Israel–Hamas partial settlement has broken down with renewed operations and closed crossings. On February 28, the U.S. and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei. Iran responded on March 1 with the largest retaliatory missile barrage in its history, striking 11 countries: Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar (Al Udeid/CENTCOM), Iraq (Erbil/Al-Asad), Jordan, Oman, Cyprus (RAF Akrotiri), and Azerbaijan — expanding the conflict from a bilateral confrontation into a regional war spanning from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Persian Gulf. The diplomatic fallout was immediate: 14 nations plus the EU boycotted the Paralympic Opening Ceremony over Russia's participation, while Iran's Olympic Committee formally demanded the IOC punish the United States and Israel for breaching the Olympic Charter. Russia continued its full-scale invasion of Ukraine with daily attacks throughout the Truce period. The Lebanon-Israel ceasefire collapsed as Hezbollah launched massive strikes and Israel struck Beirut, with 80,000+ displaced and 50+ killed. The DRC-Rwanda Washington Accords ceasefire collapsed after M23 captured Uvira (Mar 3). Pakistan's border war with Afghanistan escalated to 56 deaths and 163,000+ displaced. Sudan's Kordofan offensive struck hospitals and drew UN “domicide” warnings. These developments underscore the catastrophic failure of the Olympic Truce and the speed at which localized conflicts can escalate into regional wars.
Note: Status assessments reflect verified developments through March 6, 2026. Analysts caution that conditions remain fluid and some agreements may still be partially operative in limited areas.
Active Agreements & Ceasefires
Tracking peace processes that need to hold during the Olympic Truce window
Armenia – Azerbaijan
Peace agreement signed ending decades of conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh
Ceasefires since 2020, culminating in formal peace agreement
Truce relevance: Critical test of post-conflict reconciliation during Olympic Truce window
Israel – Hamas
Ceasefire has broken down with renewed military operations in Gaza, border crossings closed, and MSF forced to suspend operations
Partial settlement collapsed during Olympic Truce window
Truce relevance: Humanitarian corridors essential for aid delivery during Truce
Lebanon – Israel
Hezbollah launched massive strikes on Israel from southern Lebanon. Israel struck Beirut and Dahiyeh suburb. PM Salam banned Hezbollah military activities. Area south of Litani declared combat zone. 80,000+ displaced. 50+ deaths in first week of March.
Ceasefire arrangements collapsed as Hezbollah-Israel hostilities resumed with full-scale military operations on both sides of the border
Truce relevance: Ceasefire collapse during Truce window with massive civilian displacement violates core Truce principles
Israel – Iran
Ceasefire collapsed following U.S.–Israel coordinated strikes on Iran (Feb 28, 2026) and Iranian retaliatory strikes (Mar 1, 2026)
Major regional escalation during Olympic Truce window
Truce relevance: Regional stability critical for broader Middle East peace
DR Congo – Rwanda
Washington Accords ceasefire collapsed after Rwanda-backed M23 captured Uvira (Mar 3). US Treasury sanctioned RDF and 4 commanders. Hundreds of thousands displaced.
Ceasefire signed June 2025 collapsed under M23 military offensive in eastern DRC
Truce relevance: Ceasefire collapse during Truce window represents direct violation of peace principles
India – Pakistan
Ceasefire announced after escalating military confrontation
De-escalation following border tensions
Truce relevance: Nuclear de-escalation aligned with Olympic peace principles
India – Pakistan
May 2025 ceasefire under strain from Pakistan cross-border strikes into Afghanistan (Feb 22, Feb 26)
Border operations risk broader destabilization between nuclear-armed states
Truce relevance: Nuclear de-escalation critical during Olympic Truce window
Thailand – Cambodia
Ceasefire after five days of deadly border clashes
Border dispute de-escalation
Truce relevance: ASEAN regional stability important for broader peace
Serbia – Kosovo
Continued dialogue and ceasefire initiatives
EU-mediated normalization process
Truce relevance: European peace consolidation during Olympic period
Egypt – Ethiopia
Diplomatic resolution over Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute
Water rights negotiations rather than military conflict
Truce relevance: Peaceful dispute resolution model
Iran – Saudi Arabia / UAE / Bahrain / Kuwait / Qatar / Oman / Iraq / Jordan
Iranian retaliatory missile/drone strikes hit 11 countries (Mar 1). 26+ fatalities: Israel (12), Kuwait (4), Iraq (4), UAE (3), Bahrain (2), Oman (1). Debris fell in Azerbaijan. Strait of Hormuz officially closed (Mar 2), IRGC claims full control (Mar 4). Qatar LNG shutdown — Force Majeure declared. Oil surging toward $100.
Largest Iranian military operation in history. Strait of Hormuz transit dropped from 40 ships/day to near zero. 280 vessels stranded. Qatar Ras Laffan offline — 20% of global seaborne LNG gone. Insurance revoked for Strait passage.
Truce relevance: Regional war during Olympic Truce window represents most severe Truce violation in modern history
Pakistan – Afghanistan
Full border war: 56 deaths, 129 injuries, 163,000+ displaced (Mar 5). IOM hospital facility damaged. Pakistan cross-border operations escalated from airstrikes to ground war in Nangarhar/Kunar/Khost.
Escalated from Feb 22 airstrikes to full border war. Türkiye offered mediation with Russia/China support (Mar 3).
Truce relevance: Border war during Truce window with humanitarian facilities targeted represents severe Truce violation
Iran – Cyprus (UK bases)
Iranian strikes targeted RAF Akrotiri British military base in Cyprus (Mar 1, 2026), expanding the conflict into the Eastern Mediterranean
Iranian targeting of NATO-aligned bases extends conflict beyond Middle East
Truce relevance: Conflict expansion threatens Olympic Truce principles of safe passage across regions
What We Monitor
Agreement Compliance
Whether parties are adhering to signed agreements, implementing provisions, and meeting timelines
Ceasefire Violations
Incidents of violence, military movements, or provocations that threaten fragile peace
Humanitarian Access
Whether peace allows for improved aid delivery, refugee returns, and civilian protection
Diplomatic Progress
Continued dialogue, negotiation milestones, and international mediation efforts
Connected to the Truce Compliance Index
Ceasefire compliance is a key factor in our assessment of how nations honor the Olympic Truce. Maintaining peace agreements during the Truce window demonstrates genuine commitment to the spirit of ekecheiria.