Humanitarian Access
Monitoring barriers to humanitarian aid delivery during the Olympic Truce period
Why Humanitarian Access Matters for the Olympic Truce
The ancient Olympic Truce (ekecheiria) was not a ceasefire per se, but rather a guarantee of safe passage - allowing athletes, artists, and spectators to travel freely to and from the Games without fear of attack. In the modern context, this principle extends to humanitarian corridors: the ability for aid workers, medical supplies, and essential goods to reach populations in need. Monitoring humanitarian access during Truce periods reflects this fundamental spirit of the ekecheiria.
This principle is under direct threat today. Nearly 14,000 flights have been canceled across 10 Middle Eastern countries since February 28. Dubai International — connecting 291 destinations — dropped 85% of scheduled flights; Doha lost 94%. Paralympic delegations from Asia and Africa relying on Gulf hub airports face severe delays reaching Milano Cortina, a real-world violation of the ekecheiria's guarantee of safe passage to the Games.
Priority Countries
Countries where humanitarian access is most constrained, as identified by expert advisors
Gaza
extreme constraintsCrossings closed (Mar 1), MSF operations suspended (Feb 17), U.N. reports systematic aid denial (Feb 20). Ceasefire collapsed with renewed military operations.
Sudan
extreme constraintsChad border closure (Feb 23) cut off refugee routes. RSF mass displacement attacks (Feb 26). Kordofan offensive: drone strike on Dilling General Hospital (4 killed, Mar 4). El Obeid under 5 consecutive days of drone attacks. UN issued "domicide" warning.
Iran
extreme constraintsLaunched massive retaliatory campaign with 170+ ballistic missiles and drones targeting Israel, all six GCC states, Iraq, Jordan, and Cyprus. Officially closed Strait of Hormuz (Mar 2). IRGC claimed complete Strait control (Mar 4). 280+ vessels trapped outside region.
South Sudan
high constraintsPersistent access constraints in conflict-affected areas
Ukraine
high constraintsFrontline areas face significant humanitarian access challenges
Syria
high constraintsComplex political landscape affecting aid distribution
DR Congo
extreme constraintsRwanda-backed M23 captured Uvira (Mar 3), violating Washington Accords ceasefire. US Treasury sanctioned RDF and 4 commanders. Ceasefire collapsed. Hundreds of thousands displaced from eastern DRC.
Lebanon
extreme constraintsHezbollah-Israel war escalation: Hezbollah launched massive strikes on Israel, Israel struck Beirut and Dahiyeh. PM Salam banned Hezbollah military activities. Area south of Litani declared combat zone. 80,000+ displaced. 50+ deaths in first week of March.
Afghanistan
extreme constraintsPakistan-Afghanistan border war: 56 deaths, 129 injuries, 163,000+ displaced in Nangarhar/Kunar/Khost. IOM hospital facility damaged. Türkiye mediation offer with Russia/China support.
Pakistan
extreme constraintsBorder war with Afghanistan: 56 deaths, 163,000+ displaced in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. IOM facilities damaged. Türkiye mediation offer with Russia/China backing.
Ecuador
high constraintsUS-Ecuador joint military operations against narco-trafficking groups launched Mar 3. First US ground forces against South American cartels. Los Lobos network dismantled. Civilian communities in Guayaquil, Guayas, El Oro, and Loja affected.
Myanmar
extreme constraintsHeavy military airstrikes across Rakhine and Kachin States (Mar 3). Gasoline rationing imposed (even/odd license plates) due to Middle East oil supply disruption from Strait of Hormuz closure.
Mexico
high constraintsCartel violence persists with major security operations including reported killing of CJNG leader (Feb 22). Humanitarian access impeded by organized crime control of territory.
United Arab Emirates
high constraintsIranian strikes targeted Palm Jumeirah in Dubai, Etihad Towers in Abu Dhabi, Jebel Ali port, AWS data center, and Al Dhafra Air Base. 3 fatalities reported. Civilian luxury districts and critical infrastructure hit.
Bahrain
high constraintsIranian strikes targeted U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet headquarters in Manama, Mina Salman port, and Crowne Plaza Hotel. 2 fatalities reported. Gulf maritime humanitarian corridors severely disrupted.
Kuwait
high constraintsIranian missiles and drones targeted infrastructure near Kuwait International Airport and oil refinery. 4 fatalities from shrapnel. Security alert near U.S. embassy following nearby explosions.
Cyprus
moderate constraintsRAF Akrotiri base and Paphos International Airport evacuated after drone detection (Mar 1). Iran threatened to strike if U.S. forces continue operating from the island. Eastern Mediterranean transit disrupted.
Qatar
extreme constraintsIranian drones struck Ras Laffan, the world's largest LNG complex — Qatar Energy declared Force Majeure and shut down operations. 20% of global seaborne LNG now offline. Al Udeid Air Base also struck. European gas futures surged 54%.
Oman
moderate constraintsPort of Duqm struck by two Iranian drones, injuring a foreign worker. Strait of Hormuz effectively closed — transit dropped from 40 ships/day to near zero. 280 vessels trapped or anchored outside the region.
Iraq
critical constraintsIranian missiles struck Erbil International Airport and U.S. consulate in Erbil. Pro-Iran militias claimed drone attacks on Baghdad International Airport. Rumaila oil field shutting down as tankers cannot leave due to Strait of Hormuz closure. 4 fatalities reported.
Israel
extreme constraintsMultiple waves of 170+ Iranian ballistic missiles and drones struck Tel Aviv, West Jerusalem, Haifa, and Beersheba. Beit Shemesh synagogue bomb shelter destroyed (Mar 1, 9 killed). 12 total fatalities. Gaza operations and Lebanon strikes continue.
Saudi Arabia
high constraintsExplosions reported in eastern Riyadh. Aramco Ras Tanura refining facility damaged by Iranian missile debris. Attempting to reroute oil exports through Red Sea port at Yanbu to bypass Strait of Hormuz closure.
Jordan
moderate constraintsAir defenses intercepted many Iranian projectiles but falling debris and objects recorded in 73 incidents nationwide. Civilian areas affected by interception fallout.
Azerbaijan
moderate constraintsIranian missile debris fell in Azerbaijani territory during massive retaliatory barrage. Military on high alert along Iranian border. Airspace closures and commercial flight diversions affecting humanitarian transit.
Understanding ACAPS Humanitarian Access Scores
The ACAPS methodology measures humanitarian access using 9 indicators across 3 pillars, scoring each country from 0 (no constraints) to 5 (extreme constraints):
Pillar 1: People's Access
- • Denial of humanitarian needs
- • Obstruction of services
Pillar 2: Org Access
- • Entry impediments (bureaucratic)
- • Movement restrictions
- • Programmatic interference
- • Violence against aid workers
Pillar 3: Physical/Security
- • Hostilities affecting aid
- • Landmines/IEDs/UXO
- • Environmental constraints
Fragile Peace Zones
ICU WatchPost-conflict regions where military hostilities have ceased but stability remains fragile. These require careful monitoring during the Olympic Truce to prevent re-escalation.
Africa
Northern Mozambique
Cabo DelgadoInsurgency reduced after regional military interventions
South Sudan
Nationwide2018 peace agreement holding tenuously
Libya
Post-ceasefire zonesCeasefire since 2020 largely intact
Middle East
Iraq
Post-ISIS zonesMilitary defeat of ISIS left regions in recovery mode
Syria
Ceasefire zonesSome areas stabilized under ceasefire agreements
Europe & Caucasus
Nagorno-Karabakh
Armenia–AzerbaijanCeasefires since 2020, renewed agreements in 2023
Kosovo & Bosnia
Western BalkansNo renewed conflict, but reconciliation ongoing
Latin America
Colombia
Post-FARC zonesPeace agreement implementation continues
Why monitor post-conflict zones? These regions are engaged in reconciliation, disarmament, and peacebuilding. Risks of relapse remain high due to weak institutions, economic instability, ethnic divisions, and external interference. The Olympic Truce provides a symbolic window for reinforcing these fragile peace processes.
Maritime Mine Threats
Shipping RiskGlobal maritime mine incidents threaten shipping lanes, disrupt trade, and endanger humanitarian supply chains. These hotspots highlight urgent risks to mariners and global commerce.
Urgent Incidents
Black Sea
Ukraine conflict zoneCargo vessel NS Pride struck explosive device near Odesa in August 2025. Ongoing hazard from floating mines and debris.
Red Sea & Gulf of Aden
Yemen conflict zoneHouthi forces have deployed sea mines alongside missile and drone attacks. MV Eternity C sunk, multiple vessels damaged.
Ongoing Clearance
Baltic Sea
NATO clearance operationsNATO and EU-led operations continue to clear WWII-era mines, especially around shipping lanes.
Persian Gulf & Strait of Hormuz
Oil & LNG shipping routesActive war zone. Iran officially closed Strait of Hormuz (Mar 2), IRGC claimed complete control (Mar 4). Transit collapsed from 40 ships/day to near zero. 280 vessels trapped. 8+ vessels struck by drones/missiles. Insurance revoked for all Strait passages. Iraq shutting down Rumaila oil field — no storage space as tankers cannot leave.
Legacy Risks
South China Sea
Territorial watersHistoric mines and tensions over territorial waters pose risks to fishing and trade.
Pacific Islands
WWII remnantsWWII mines still affect fishing communities, limiting safe access to coastal waters.
Strategic Impact: The Black Sea and Red Sea are the most urgent maritime mine zones today. Rerouting ships away from the Red Sea has cut Suez Canal revenues by 40% since 2023. Mines threaten food security by blocking grain exports from Ukraine and disrupting fishing in the Pacific. These are not just remnants of past wars — they are active threats to civilians, economies, and global stability.
Sources: Dryad Global, Lloyd's List, World Ports Source
Exemplary Humanitarian Access
Best PracticesCountries scoring well on humanitarian access (ACAPS Score 0-1), demonstrating effective support for humanitarian operations and refugee populations
Moldova
↑ improvedExemplary care for Ukrainian refugees despite limited resources
Hosted refugees equivalent to 5% of its population
Romania
→ stableStrong humanitarian access with no significant constraints
Efficient refugee processing and integration programs
Peru
↑ improvedImproved humanitarian access despite regional challenges
Effective coordination with international organizations
Panama
→ stableConsistent humanitarian access for migrant populations
Manages Darien Gap migration corridor effectively
Angola
→ stableLow humanitarian access constraints in post-conflict recovery
Open access for international humanitarian organizations
Rwanda
→ stableStrong institutional support for refugee populations
Hosts significant refugee population with minimal barriers
Why highlight positive examples? These countries demonstrate that effective humanitarian access is achievable. Low scores (0-1) indicate minimal bureaucratic impediments, freedom of movement for aid workers, and supportive policies for refugee populations. Their practices serve as models for improving humanitarian access globally.
Source: ACAPS Humanitarian Access Overview July 2025, expert consultation with humanitarian professionals
Data Sources
Our humanitarian access monitoring draws on authoritative independent sources
ACAPS
(Assessment Capacities Project)Bi-annual Global Humanitarian Access Overview covering 80+ countries with 9 indicators across 3 pillars
Humanitarian Outcomes
(CORE Project)Direct surveys of crisis-affected populations on aid accessibility and humanitarian actor effectiveness
Expert Consultation
The humanitarian access monitoring for the Truce Foundation is developed in consultation with experienced humanitarian professionals with decades of field experience across UN agencies, USAID, and international NGOs. Our advisors have directed emergency operations in complex emergencies including the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, Ukrainian refugee coordination, and conflict responses in Sudan, Bosnia, Angola, and Gaza.
Our humanitarian advisor Doug Mercado brings extensive experience from senior roles at USAID and the UN, having coordinated humanitarian responses to some of the most challenging crises of recent decades.
How This Fits Our Methodology
Humanitarian corridors represent 25% of our composite Truce Compliance Index score. This data informs our assessment of whether states are enabling safe passage for aid.