Humanitarian Monitoring

Humanitarian Access

Monitoring barriers to humanitarian aid delivery during the Olympic Truce period

Why Humanitarian Access Matters for the Olympic Truce

The ancient Olympic Truce (ekecheiria) was not a ceasefire per se, but rather a guarantee of safe passage - allowing athletes, artists, and spectators to travel freely to and from the Games without fear of attack. In the modern context, this principle extends to humanitarian corridors: the ability for aid workers, medical supplies, and essential goods to reach populations in need. Monitoring humanitarian access during Truce periods reflects this fundamental spirit of the ekecheiria.

This principle is under direct threat today. Nearly 14,000 flights have been canceled across 10 Middle Eastern countries since February 28. Dubai International — connecting 291 destinations — dropped 85% of scheduled flights; Doha lost 94%. Paralympic delegations from Asia and Africa relying on Gulf hub airports face severe delays reaching Milano Cortina, a real-world violation of the ekecheiria's guarantee of safe passage to the Games.

Priority Countries

Countries where humanitarian access is most constrained, as identified by expert advisors

Gaza

extreme constraints
5/5
ACAPS Score

Crossings closed (Mar 1), MSF operations suspended (Feb 17), U.N. reports systematic aid denial (Feb 20). Ceasefire collapsed with renewed military operations.

Crossings closed
MSF operations suspended
Systematic aid denial

Sudan

extreme constraints
5/5
ACAPS Score

Chad border closure (Feb 23) cut off refugee routes. RSF mass displacement attacks (Feb 26). Kordofan offensive: drone strike on Dilling General Hospital (4 killed, Mar 4). El Obeid under 5 consecutive days of drone attacks. UN issued "domicide" warning.

Chad border closure
RSF mass displacement
Dilling hospital strike
El Obeid drone attacks
UN domicide warning

Iran

extreme constraints
5/5
ACAPS Score

Launched massive retaliatory campaign with 170+ ballistic missiles and drones targeting Israel, all six GCC states, Iraq, Jordan, and Cyprus. Officially closed Strait of Hormuz (Mar 2). IRGC claimed complete Strait control (Mar 4). 280+ vessels trapped outside region.

170+ missile/drone campaign across 10 countries
Strait of Hormuz closed
IRGC claims Strait control
Global energy crisis

South Sudan

high constraints
4/5
ACAPS Score

Persistent access constraints in conflict-affected areas

Road inaccessibility
Armed group interference
Bureaucratic impediments

Ukraine

high constraints
4/5
ACAPS Score

Frontline areas face significant humanitarian access challenges

Active combat zones
Infrastructure damage
Mine contamination

Syria

high constraints
4/5
ACAPS Score

Complex political landscape affecting aid distribution

Cross-border restrictions
Multi-party conflict
Sanctions complications

DR Congo

extreme constraints
5/5
ACAPS Score

Rwanda-backed M23 captured Uvira (Mar 3), violating Washington Accords ceasefire. US Treasury sanctioned RDF and 4 commanders. Ceasefire collapsed. Hundreds of thousands displaced from eastern DRC.

M23 captured Uvira
Washington Accords violated
US sanctions on RDF
Mass displacement

Lebanon

extreme constraints
5/5
ACAPS Score

Hezbollah-Israel war escalation: Hezbollah launched massive strikes on Israel, Israel struck Beirut and Dahiyeh. PM Salam banned Hezbollah military activities. Area south of Litani declared combat zone. 80,000+ displaced. 50+ deaths in first week of March.

Hezbollah-Israel escalation
80K+ displaced
50+ deaths in March
Litani combat zone

Afghanistan

extreme constraints
5/5
ACAPS Score

Pakistan-Afghanistan border war: 56 deaths, 129 injuries, 163,000+ displaced in Nangarhar/Kunar/Khost. IOM hospital facility damaged. Türkiye mediation offer with Russia/China support.

56 deaths, 129 injuries
163K+ displaced
IOM facility damaged
Border war escalation

Pakistan

extreme constraints
5/5
ACAPS Score

Border war with Afghanistan: 56 deaths, 163,000+ displaced in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. IOM facilities damaged. Türkiye mediation offer with Russia/China backing.

56 deaths
163K+ displaced
IOM facilities damaged
Mediation offer

Ecuador

high constraints
3/5
ACAPS Score

US-Ecuador joint military operations against narco-trafficking groups launched Mar 3. First US ground forces against South American cartels. Los Lobos network dismantled. Civilian communities in Guayaquil, Guayas, El Oro, and Loja affected.

US military operations
Narco-trafficking violence
Civilian community impact

Myanmar

extreme constraints
5/5
ACAPS Score

Heavy military airstrikes across Rakhine and Kachin States (Mar 3). Gasoline rationing imposed (even/odd license plates) due to Middle East oil supply disruption from Strait of Hormuz closure.

Rakhine airstrikes
Kachin airstrikes
Gasoline rationing
Oil supply disruption

Mexico

high constraints
3/5
ACAPS Score

Cartel violence persists with major security operations including reported killing of CJNG leader (Feb 22). Humanitarian access impeded by organized crime control of territory.

Cartel territorial control
Violence against aid workers
Displacement from organized crime

United Arab Emirates

high constraints
3/5
ACAPS Score

Iranian strikes targeted Palm Jumeirah in Dubai, Etihad Towers in Abu Dhabi, Jebel Ali port, AWS data center, and Al Dhafra Air Base. 3 fatalities reported. Civilian luxury districts and critical infrastructure hit.

Dubai Palm Jumeirah strikes
Abu Dhabi Etihad Towers hit
Al Dhafra Air Base targeted
3 fatalities

Bahrain

high constraints
3/5
ACAPS Score

Iranian strikes targeted U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet headquarters in Manama, Mina Salman port, and Crowne Plaza Hotel. 2 fatalities reported. Gulf maritime humanitarian corridors severely disrupted.

Fifth Fleet HQ struck
Crowne Plaza Hotel hit
Mina Salman port targeted
2 fatalities

Kuwait

high constraints
3/5
ACAPS Score

Iranian missiles and drones targeted infrastructure near Kuwait International Airport and oil refinery. 4 fatalities from shrapnel. Security alert near U.S. embassy following nearby explosions.

Airport infrastructure struck
Oil refinery targeted
U.S. embassy area explosions
4 fatalities

Cyprus

moderate constraints
2/5
ACAPS Score

RAF Akrotiri base and Paphos International Airport evacuated after drone detection (Mar 1). Iran threatened to strike if U.S. forces continue operating from the island. Eastern Mediterranean transit disrupted.

Akrotiri and Paphos evacuated
Iranian threat to strike
Mediterranean transit disruption

Qatar

extreme constraints
5/5
ACAPS Score

Iranian drones struck Ras Laffan, the world's largest LNG complex — Qatar Energy declared Force Majeure and shut down operations. 20% of global seaborne LNG now offline. Al Udeid Air Base also struck. European gas futures surged 54%.

Ras Laffan LNG complex shut down
Force Majeure declared
Al Udeid Air Base struck
20% global LNG offline

Oman

moderate constraints
2/5
ACAPS Score

Port of Duqm struck by two Iranian drones, injuring a foreign worker. Strait of Hormuz effectively closed — transit dropped from 40 ships/day to near zero. 280 vessels trapped or anchored outside the region.

Port of Duqm drone strike
1 injury reported
Strait of Hormuz closed
280 vessels stranded

Iraq

critical constraints
4/5
ACAPS Score

Iranian missiles struck Erbil International Airport and U.S. consulate in Erbil. Pro-Iran militias claimed drone attacks on Baghdad International Airport. Rumaila oil field shutting down as tankers cannot leave due to Strait of Hormuz closure. 4 fatalities reported.

Erbil Airport and consulate struck
Baghdad Airport drone attacks
Rumaila oil field shutdown
4 fatalities

Israel

extreme constraints
5/5
ACAPS Score

Multiple waves of 170+ Iranian ballistic missiles and drones struck Tel Aviv, West Jerusalem, Haifa, and Beersheba. Beit Shemesh synagogue bomb shelter destroyed (Mar 1, 9 killed). 12 total fatalities. Gaza operations and Lebanon strikes continue.

170+ missiles/drones from Iran
Beit Shemesh synagogue destroyed
Gaza crossings closed
12 fatalities

Saudi Arabia

high constraints
3/5
ACAPS Score

Explosions reported in eastern Riyadh. Aramco Ras Tanura refining facility damaged by Iranian missile debris. Attempting to reroute oil exports through Red Sea port at Yanbu to bypass Strait of Hormuz closure.

Aramco Ras Tanura damaged
Eastern Riyadh explosions
Oil exports rerouted to Yanbu
Strait of Hormuz bypass

Jordan

moderate constraints
2/5
ACAPS Score

Air defenses intercepted many Iranian projectiles but falling debris and objects recorded in 73 incidents nationwide. Civilian areas affected by interception fallout.

73 debris incidents nationwide
Airspace violations
Civilian fallout from interceptions

Azerbaijan

moderate constraints
2/5
ACAPS Score

Iranian missile debris fell in Azerbaijani territory during massive retaliatory barrage. Military on high alert along Iranian border. Airspace closures and commercial flight diversions affecting humanitarian transit.

Iranian missile debris on territory
Border military alert
Airspace closures
Flight diversions

Understanding ACAPS Humanitarian Access Scores

The ACAPS methodology measures humanitarian access using 9 indicators across 3 pillars, scoring each country from 0 (no constraints) to 5 (extreme constraints):

Pillar 1: People's Access

  • • Denial of humanitarian needs
  • • Obstruction of services

Pillar 2: Org Access

  • • Entry impediments (bureaucratic)
  • • Movement restrictions
  • • Programmatic interference
  • • Violence against aid workers

Pillar 3: Physical/Security

  • • Hostilities affecting aid
  • • Landmines/IEDs/UXO
  • • Environmental constraints
0-1: Low/No constraints2: Moderate3: High4: Very High5: Extreme

Fragile Peace Zones

ICU Watch

Post-conflict regions where military hostilities have ceased but stability remains fragile. These require careful monitoring during the Olympic Truce to prevent re-escalation.

Africa

Northern Mozambique

Cabo Delgado
stabilizing

Insurgency reduced after regional military interventions

Community dialogue
Economic recovery
Displaced population reintegration

South Sudan

Nationwide
fragile

2018 peace agreement holding tenuously

Disarmament
Reconciliation
Transitional governance

Libya

Post-ceasefire zones
fragile

Ceasefire since 2020 largely intact

Political reconciliation
UN-led dialogue
Factional mediation

Middle East

Iraq

Post-ISIS zones
recovering

Military defeat of ISIS left regions in recovery mode

Sectarian reconciliation
Governance rebuilding
Counter-extremism

Syria

Ceasefire zones
fragile

Some areas stabilized under ceasefire agreements

Reconstruction
Reconciliation
International aid coordination

Europe & Caucasus

Nagorno-Karabakh

Armenia–Azerbaijan
fragile

Ceasefires since 2020, renewed agreements in 2023

Displaced population return
Ethnic reconciliation
Border demarcation

Kosovo & Bosnia

Western Balkans
stabilizing

No renewed conflict, but reconciliation ongoing

EU-led governance initiatives
Dialogue
Ethnic tension prevention

Latin America

Colombia

Post-FARC zones
fragile

Peace agreement implementation continues

Ex-combatant reintegration
Reconciliation programs
Criminal group containment

Why monitor post-conflict zones? These regions are engaged in reconciliation, disarmament, and peacebuilding. Risks of relapse remain high due to weak institutions, economic instability, ethnic divisions, and external interference. The Olympic Truce provides a symbolic window for reinforcing these fragile peace processes.

Maritime Mine Threats

Shipping Risk

Global maritime mine incidents threaten shipping lanes, disrupt trade, and endanger humanitarian supply chains. These hotspots highlight urgent risks to mariners and global commerce.

Urgent Incidents

Black Sea

Ukraine conflict zone

Cargo vessel NS Pride struck explosive device near Odesa in August 2025. Ongoing hazard from floating mines and debris.

Grain export disruption
Floating mine hazards
War-risk insurance required

Red Sea & Gulf of Aden

Yemen conflict zone

Houthi forces have deployed sea mines alongside missile and drone attacks. MV Eternity C sunk, multiple vessels damaged.

Suez Canal revenues down 40%
Global shipping rerouted via Cape of Good Hope
Insurance costs tripled

Ongoing Clearance

Baltic Sea

NATO clearance operations

NATO and EU-led operations continue to clear WWII-era mines, especially around shipping lanes.

Active clearance operations
Shipping lane protection
Periodic discoveries

Persian Gulf & Strait of Hormuz

Oil & LNG shipping routes

Active war zone. Iran officially closed Strait of Hormuz (Mar 2), IRGC claimed complete control (Mar 4). Transit collapsed from 40 ships/day to near zero. 280 vessels trapped. 8+ vessels struck by drones/missiles. Insurance revoked for all Strait passages. Iraq shutting down Rumaila oil field — no storage space as tankers cannot leave.

Strait of Hormuz closed — 16-18M bbl/day disrupted
280 vessels stranded outside region
P&I insurance revoked (Mar 5)
Oil toward $100, LNG up 54%

Legacy Risks

South China Sea

Territorial waters

Historic mines and tensions over territorial waters pose risks to fishing and trade.

Fishing restrictions
Trade route hazards
Territorial tensions compound risk

Pacific Islands

WWII remnants

WWII mines still affect fishing communities, limiting safe access to coastal waters.

Fishing restrictions
Coastal hazards
Limited clearance resources

Strategic Impact: The Black Sea and Red Sea are the most urgent maritime mine zones today. Rerouting ships away from the Red Sea has cut Suez Canal revenues by 40% since 2023. Mines threaten food security by blocking grain exports from Ukraine and disrupting fishing in the Pacific. These are not just remnants of past wars — they are active threats to civilians, economies, and global stability.

Exemplary Humanitarian Access

Best Practices

Countries scoring well on humanitarian access (ACAPS Score 0-1), demonstrating effective support for humanitarian operations and refugee populations

Moldova

↑ improved
1/5
ACAPS Score

Exemplary care for Ukrainian refugees despite limited resources

Hosted refugees equivalent to 5% of its population

Romania

→ stable
0/5
ACAPS Score

Strong humanitarian access with no significant constraints

Efficient refugee processing and integration programs

Peru

↑ improved
1/5
ACAPS Score

Improved humanitarian access despite regional challenges

Effective coordination with international organizations

Panama

→ stable
1/5
ACAPS Score

Consistent humanitarian access for migrant populations

Manages Darien Gap migration corridor effectively

Angola

→ stable
1/5
ACAPS Score

Low humanitarian access constraints in post-conflict recovery

Open access for international humanitarian organizations

Rwanda

→ stable
1/5
ACAPS Score

Strong institutional support for refugee populations

Hosts significant refugee population with minimal barriers

Why highlight positive examples? These countries demonstrate that effective humanitarian access is achievable. Low scores (0-1) indicate minimal bureaucratic impediments, freedom of movement for aid workers, and supportive policies for refugee populations. Their practices serve as models for improving humanitarian access globally.

Source: ACAPS Humanitarian Access Overview July 2025, expert consultation with humanitarian professionals

Expert Consultation

The humanitarian access monitoring for the Truce Foundation is developed in consultation with experienced humanitarian professionals with decades of field experience across UN agencies, USAID, and international NGOs. Our advisors have directed emergency operations in complex emergencies including the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, Ukrainian refugee coordination, and conflict responses in Sudan, Bosnia, Angola, and Gaza.

Our humanitarian advisor Doug Mercado brings extensive experience from senior roles at USAID and the UN, having coordinated humanitarian responses to some of the most challenging crises of recent decades.

How This Fits Our Methodology

Humanitarian corridors represent 25% of our composite Truce Compliance Index score. This data informs our assessment of whether states are enabling safe passage for aid.